Friday, January 04, 2008

The Iowa Primary: An Embarrassment of Riches for Democrats

By now, the entire world knows Barack Obama won the Democratic nod and Mike Huckabee won on the GOP side.

Big Sis called me early last night and we made bets about each side. The one who correctly guessed the winner of the Democratic side got a free dinner and for the GOP side the winner got a free breakfast.
Now she owes me a free breakfast and dinner!

I watched CNN until late last night so I could hear the top three Democrats' speeches.
I'm happy to say I liked what all three had to say.

-Edwards is good because he hates corporate greed and knows how to torture those bastards in the corner offices. Tax incentives for outsourcing jobs will be gone if he wins. He wants the war in Iraq to end. Plus he's cute, white and male, so he can pull votes from the undecided and superficial.
-Obama is good because he never voted for that fucking Iraqi war and he'd pull out the troops immediately.
Plus he won in one of the whitest states in the nation, which demonstrates his charismatic nature.
-Hillary is good for reasons I've already mentioned in an earlier post.

Any of them could win the Presidency and I'd be thrilled.

As for Huckabee, he won in a conservative state where religiosity is considered a necessity for GOP voters when considering a candidate.
They didn't vote for Romney because conservative Christians recognize Mormonism as a cult, which it is and always has been. Romney is too slick, too rich and too Bushy to have captured the hearts of Iowans.

I listened to Huckabee's victory speech.
First, the shadow of Chuck Norris behind him on the podium reminded me how much Norris resembles Danny Bonaduce. How unfortunate for both of them.
Huckabee seems like a simple, plain spoken, nice guy. He's definitely not cut from the same cloth as the rest of the GOP contenders.
That's what will hurt him.
The Republicans eat their own, and the monied ones like Romney and Giuliani will cast Huckabee as just another Gomer from Hope, Arkansas. They will vilify him and turn him into some kind of anti-Christ monster before all is said and done.
He's their worst nightmare; an evangelical who will get the votes Bush got when he pretended to be born-again. The GOP panders to right-wing religious wing-nuts and now they have one running for president.
Delicious poetic justice.

New Hampshire will tell a different story.
There's less religiosity, more liberals and more sophistication than in Iowa.
I've been to New Hampshire, however, and I was struck by its rural nature. It's not Boston sophisticated, but like all of New England, it is a population of politically savvy voters who listen carefully to primary candidates.
I wouldn't underestimate the power of the Clinton machine in New Hampshire. Hillary was educated in New England and she definitely would be what the Beach Boys would call, "an East Coast girl."

Giuliani and Romney might have a better showing than Huckabee with New Hampshire Republicans because New Englanders are not high on Southern corn pone preachers. They like Yankees, period.

As I have said repeatedly, the Republicans do not have even one candidate who can appeal to GOP voters across the board. They all have at least a few fatal flaws, Bush being a Republican being the worst.

I think it's safe to say change is coming and it doesn't look like the Republicans have anyone who can distance himself enough from Bush and his vanity war to get elected. People are tired of that shit, and I think come November we'll see that in the polls.

10 comments:

Sonia said...

Let him have the silver, as long as he doesn't leave us with another Supreme Court Justice!

Karen Zipdrive said...

Any Republican candidate would make a disasterous choice of the next Supreme Court Justice.
One more danger in electing another one of those GOP bastards.

dguzman said...

Excellent post, Zip. Please check out my post--similar thoughts on Hillary. It's a long way to November, and she's still the toughest bitch on the block. I'd be happy with any of the dems too.

karenzipdrive said...

DGuz
For some reason I cannot post comments on your Blog.
Google won't let me register because they say I already am registered, but I don't recall my password and they offer no directions as to how to find out what it is.
=:[

Anonymous said...

I like Obama much more than Hillary or Edwards. But I like Kucinich more than anyone on that side. Too bad he didn't pull off the upset!

For the Republicans, Huckabee better enjoy his moment in the sun. The rest of this country and the larger conservative movement will eviscerate him if he develops into a real threat.

My fave, Ron Paul, did quite well. I don't see how Fox can exclude him now from their upcoming forum thingy, especially since he trounced Rudy. The libertarian enclave of New Hampshire should prove a fertile ground for him.

Karen Zipdrive said...

Ron Paul did quite well? You must be kidding.
He came in at 5th place.
He's the GOP's answer to Kucinich--too far out there to be viable.

Anonymous said...

There were two ways for Ron Paul to win in Iowa: Win outright, flattening the competition. Or stay competitive in a very divided race. He pulled off the second option.

Fifth place is A-OK and here's why: the Republicans have no established front-runner. Their electorate is divided and will probably stay divided. Ron Paul placed himself firmly in the pack by stomping Giuliani and nipping at the heals of McCain. This in a state where big corn and all its assorted federal subsidies rule. There were precious few candidates not willing to pander to the ethanol lobby, and Ron Paul is the only one who got as high as 10%. Double digits in Iowa is more than he's getting in nationwide polls. If he finishes any higher than that in New Hampshire, a strong likelihood, then the press will start talking about "momentum." It will be more horse race horse shit from that bunch, but it's press nonetheless, and it's good for his campaign.

In some ways I'm pleased he didn't do better. There were whispers Thompson was going to drop out of the race if he finished poorly. On the way out the door he would have thrown his support behind McCain. That might have made McCain unstoppable going into New Hampshire. Instead we've got just the kind of situation where a lesser known candidate with incredibly passionate supporters can steal some thunder while the pro-war bunch split their votes.

bigsis said...

I'm suspicious that so many D's came out to caucus. Especially since they can caucus on either side (D or R) and then come back and vote however they want in the primary. hmmmmm

Don't underestimate Huck. He talks cornpone but he's damn shrewed. And his christian b.s. sells big in the south, which outnumbers voters up there in those yankee states.

Ron Paul is the Kinky Friedman of the R's. I would have thought the world would be sick of Texas politicians by now, but?? Paul is another one that shouldn't be underestimated.

My guess right now is that it'll come down to Edwards and Huck. But what do I know, I'm buying breakfast and lunch?

karenzipdrive said...

Huckabee's campaign manager is Ed Rollins- who's about as shrewd, down and dirty as can be without actually being Karl Rove.

I totally agree that Ron Paul is very similar to Kinky Friedman. Some of his ideas are exemplary but others are so crazy they cancel out the good ones.

All in all, I think the nation needs a break from *all* Texas politicians.
We've embarrassed ourselves enough with the Bush boondoggle.

dguzman said...

Zip--WTF!? I don't know why that is. I'll check my settings.